At the start of this year, we began tracking approximately 10,000 products across three major U.S. retailers: Amazon, Walmart, and Target. Why? Because the trade landscape was already heating up. With headlines swirling about shifting tariff policies, changes in import duties, and the mounting pressure on global supply chains, we wanted to see how these forces were playing out, not just at a macro level, but on the product pages themselves.
We didn’t begin with a specific hypothesis or assumption. We decided to watch the data and see what patterns emerged.
Now, six months in, there are plenty of questions to explore. Did prices jump? Did products go out of stock? Were marketplaces absorbing the shock? Were certain products, suppliers, or regions reacting faster than others? Were specific categories hit harder than others? And when did these shifts appear — immediately or much later, after the policies were implemented?
In this post, we’ll zoom in on a single retailer: Amazon, and a subset of products (ACME Furniture) tied to two key sourcing countries: China and Vietnam. The data showed a clear pattern of disruption and two very different reaction timelines. One sharp and early. One slower, but still consequential.
The Immediate Impact: Early Movements Observed in Products Sourced from China
January–March
Back in January, prices and inventory levels for Acme-branded products on Amazon looked pretty stable. Products sourced from China and Vietnam hovered around the same price range, roughly $740–760, and inventory levels were strong, with over 80-85% of items in stock.
The first signs of stress
News of upcoming tariffs began circulating by the end of January, and on February 1, 2025, a 10% tariff on all Chinese imports was announced. An additional 20% was officially announced on February 27. Although the tariff wasn’t implemented until March 4, we noticed a sharp drop in availability almost immediately after the February 27 announcement.
It didn’t take long for the impact to show up on the shelves — or, in this case, the product listings. Within just 5 days, availability for products sourced from China dropped from 83% to 74% and by March 8, it fell further to 64%, a nearly 20% drop in availability in less than 10 days. This sudden drop raised eyebrows. Was it a supply disruption? A shift in sourcing? Anticipation of the tariff? Whatever the reason, the impact was immediate. It may point to suppliers rushing to sell off existing inventory before the tariff took effect. Alternatively, it could reflect delays or halts in new shipments due to disruptions or uncertainty after the announcement. In contrast, Vietnam-sourced products experienced a short-lived dip in late January, but from early February onward, their inventory stayed stable around 85% with no sustained dips as seen in China.
Then came the price movement, and it wasn’t subtle. Following the sharp drop in availability for China-sourced products, prices began to shift as well. Around mid-February, even before the second tariff was officially announced, we started seeing a gradual rise. What had been a stable average of around $750 climbed steadily, crossing the $800 mark by early March. After the February 27 announcement, the trend intensified, with prices reaching close to $860 by the end of March. This behavior suggests that sellers were not only anticipating higher import costs but were also starting to pass them along, either to preserve margins or test how much price movement the market would absorb.
Products sourced from Vietnam showed some fluctuations and spikes, particularly around mid-February and early March, even reaching close to $840 at one point, but these weren’t sustained. Prices quickly fell back down and mostly hovered between $760–780, occasionally dipping to the $720–760 range by late March. While the line was volatile, there was no clear upward trend through the period, suggesting that Vietnam remained relatively insulated from tariff-driven pricing pressures, at least for now.
The Delayed Reaction: Vietnam’s Steady Climb
April-June
As we moved into Q2, things began to shift more visibly — and this time, Vietnam wasn’t sitting still.
Throughout early April, products sourced from China remained elevated, holding steady around the $850 mark. This wasn’t entirely unexpected. With the U.S. imposing steep reciprocal tariffs on Chinese goods, up to 125% by April 9. Those levels held firm until around May 31–June 5, when prices took another sharp jump, briefly spiking toward $950 before settling back into the $830–850 range.
Vietnam, on the other hand, told a quieter but persistent story. For most of April, Vietnamese products stayed under $770, showing no major deviation, even after the potential 46% tariff on Vietnamese goods in early April. That changed after May 11. Just days before formal U.S.-Vietnam negotiations began in Washington, we started seeing a clear, upward shift in prices. It wasn’t a spike; it was a steady climb. From mid-May to the end of June, Vietnamese prices rose consistently, ultimately pushing past $900. No sudden drops. No dramatic surges. Just a slow, confident march upward — one that suggests pricing adjustments were being made gradually, perhaps in anticipation of long-term cost changes, or as suppliers adapted to the shifting trade environment.
When we look at in-stock rates, the contrast is surprisingly calm. China-sourced products held steady between 75–80% availability across most of Q2, without the dramatic dips we saw back in March. Earlier, we noticed a sharp but temporary spike in prices from May 31-June 5, and we see there’s a similar and slight dip around the same time in product availability for China. Neither the price spike nor the stock drop lasted long, but the overlap raises questions. Was it a momentary stockout? A rush in orders? Or just a pricing overreaction? We can’t say for sure, but this short-lived bump reminds us how fast markets can respond to even the hint of disruption, especially when trade policy is already in flux.
Vietnam, on the other hand, maintained strong availability throughout, hovering around or above 85%, with no major stock issues observed. That stability makes the consistent price climb even more interesting. Unlike the case with China, there wasn’t a supply squeeze driving the rise, no sudden dips in availability to explain the shift. Instead, the data points to something more deliberate.
The fact that prices rose while in-stock rates remained high suggests that sellers weren’t reacting to shortages — they were responding to perceived risk. With the U.S. floating a potential 46% tariff on Vietnamese goods in April and entering tense negotiations by mid-May, the increase in prices was likely less about immediate disruptions and more about gradual supplier adjustments — a way to prepare for possible cost increases and ongoing trade uncertainty. In other words, Vietnam’s rising prices weren’t a reaction to disruption — they were a signal of expectation. That slow, steady climb aligns with a market adjusting proactively, not defensively. And in a way, it reinforces just how differently the two supply chains, China and Vietnam, absorbed the shock of Q2’s tariff tensions.
While China’s pricing story was volatile and reactive, Vietnam’s was patient but firm. And that distinction — fast shock versus slow adaptation — might hint at deeper differences in how these sourcing pipelines absorb and respond to policy uncertainty.
“Tariffs don’t show up in strategy decks. They show up on product pages. Our Rainforest API caught it in real time. China’s supply chain took a hit fast. Vietnam climbed slow and steady. This stuff doesn’t scream. It whispers. And if you’re not watching closely, you miss it. Brands need to be tracking live data at the SKU level. Otherwise, you’re making decisions blind. The shelf is shifting whether you’re looking or not.”
– Ria Delamere, CTPO at Traject Data
Bringing Clarity to Chaos: Traject Data’s Role in Ecommerce Monitoring
This kind of granular, real-time analysis wouldn’t be possible without reliable ecommerce APIs — and that’s exactly where Traject Data comes in. With access to live and historical product data across major retailers like Amazon, Walmart, and Target, Traject Data’s SERP and ecommerce APIs make it easy to track price shifts, stock changes, and competitive movements as they happen. Whether you’re monitoring tariff impacts, analyzing supplier behavior, or forecasting future disruptions, our data helps you see the story unfolding at the product level — not just in policy papers. In an environment where global trade policy can shift overnight, having this level of visibility is more than useful — it’s essential.
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